Polish presidential veto and its repercussions on Hungary

HUNGARY - In Brief 24 Jul 2017 by Istvan Racz

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Polish president Andrzej Duda announced today his veto to two highly contentious new parliamentary acts, which would seriously reduce the independence of Polish courts, in an aggressive effort by the Polish governing party PiS to gain more influence over judicial activity in the country. Parliament has the right to overturn the President's veto with a three-fifth majority. However, this could be achieved only if some of the opposition parties also support the decision, which appears less likely in this specific case.But why is this important for Hungary? We said in our most recent Quarterly Report that PM Orbán is leading Hungary's government on a course towards isolation within the EU, with the growing likelihood of a collision with the mainstream EU member states sooner or later. To put it simply, should the Polish amendments on the judicial system get through, it would make a collision between Hungary and the EU much more likely to happen sooner than later. On the contrary, should PiS withdraw from its aggressive reform attempts, even if partially, through a presidential veto (President Duda is known to be essentially a representative of PiS in terms of his political affiliation), it would put off the threat of an immediate conflict for Hungary.The reason for all this is that PiS' legal initiative has been sharply condemned by the EU, the Commission's vice president Frans Timmermans saying last week that 'they' were very close to conduct an Article 7 rule of law procedure against Poland, with a view to set a penalty, possibly the suspension of the country's voting right in the European Council. Now, as we also said in our recent reports, the governments of Poland an...