Political arrangements for the 2024 elections being defined, amid economic uncertainty
Although economic activity growth in February 2023 (at 1.8% y/y) was higher than in January 2023 (at 0.4% y/y), the economy has undoubtedly entered a path of lower growth, which may intensify if international economic conditions deteriorate. Even the authorities have recognized the possibility of economic growth of 4% to 4.5% for 2023. Our growth projections are more conservative, and we don’t rule out the possibility of growth falling below 4%.
A positive aspect is the downward trend of inflation, at 5.9% y/y in March 2023, a significant fall from the 7.9% reached in 2022, which a return to the inflation target 4 ± 1 by Q4 2023 more likely.
Inflation will undoubtedly affect political preferences for the 2024 elections. Despite the lower inflation of recent months, the rise in the cost of living is the main concern for 68.9% of the population, according to a new Gallup-RCC Media poll. Other aspects of public concern are civil insecurity, in second place (62.6%), and unemployment, in third place (23.9%).
Now read on...
Register to sample a report