Political gender violence or attempt at a coup d'état?
The political saga between President Daniel Noboa and Vice President Veronica Abad has escalated to mutual accusations of gender-based political violence on the side of Abad and attempts at a coup d’état raised by the official side. The truth of the matter is that Noboa, who has a high probability of being re-elected in the presidential elections of 2025, will hardly be able to avoid the legal mandate of having Abad as his deputy for 33 days starting January 5, 2025, if he wants to run for president.
As of August 17, 17 parties completed their primary elections and registered their candidates for president and vice president. This was expected, as such a large number has been the rule for the last four presidential and local government elections. Many of these parties register candidates just to participate as commodities in the political market and gain some access to the legislature through alliances. But this large dispersion is precisely what complicates the consolidation of a viable majority in Congress for whomever the president may be.
Final registration for the elections will start on September 13 and end on October 2, and by then, some parties might consolidate alliances before the elections. However, it is most probable that alliances will be made after the first round, after which the winner and the runner-up will fight for additional votes, unless one of them wins in the first round, which is not a highly probable outcome.
It looks as if the left-wing side has a larger number of candidates, which makes the road for Revolucion Ciudadana a tougher one as it has to dispute its leadership with around 67% of the remaining candidates on its side, while Noboa might be competing against around 33% on his side. Luisa Gonzalez might have in Leonidas Iza her toughest competitor, while Daniel Noboa is contesting his candidacy with Andrea Gonzalez (Sociedad Patriotica), Francesco Tabacchi (CREO), Jan Topic (SUMA) and Henry Kronffle (Social Christians). Kronfle could be his toughest rival on the coastal region, with Gonzales the toughest in the Andean Region.
While politics have captured everyone's attention, the threat of new electricity outages is rising once again due to the severe drought of the past months. An additional investment of around $100 million is urgently needed to purchase additional thermoelectric generation and to contain the damage in the Coca Codo Sinclare hydroelectric power plant. But the unquestionable lack of fiscal liquidity within the fiscal accounts, which as of August 8 have deposits of less than $300 million at the Central Bank, as well as arrears of $1.5b and a deficit between January and July that, depending on its calculation could be between $339 million or $1b, raises questions about how and when the government might fill the current electricity gap.
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