Politics: Political Map for 2018 Redrawn
The PRI entered this year’s campaign expecting to expand its absolute majority of state governors and gain momentum heading toward the 2018 election. Instead, on June 5 the PAN took seven of the 12 governorships in play as it jostled for the pole position ahead of the presidential contest.
The traditional top-tier parties received considerably fewer votes than they did in the same gubernatorial contests six years earlier, with the PRI and the PRD the biggest losers in that regard. Despite its breakthrough victories in several states, even the PAN’s total vote was down, although half of that erosion of support came in Oaxaca. Morena, which didn’t exist six years ago, received 1.7 million more votes than during its initial election campaign (2015), suggesting that it picked up only about a third of the PRD’s voters and drew the rest from disgruntled PRI supporters and new voters. In contrast, minor parties saw their tally almost triple from 2010, underscoring the extent to which the vote has become fragmented, as well as the importance to the major parties of alliances with smaller players.
Looking ahead to 2018, the prospects of the PRI’s short list of potential presidential candidates has been diminished as much by the party’s dismal showing as by the depressed approval ratings of President Peña Nieto; the 2017 gubernatorial elections will be the last chance for the incumbent party to regain momentum, especially in the all-important State of Mexico, where the current governor might emerge as a strong challenger to the Peña cabinet members regarded as potential nominees.
The PAN clearly has the wind in its sails and appears to have eclipsed Morena as the strongest challenger to the PRI in 2018, assuming that the center-right party can remain united behind its next presidential nominee. The greatly weakened PRD looks increasingly relegated to the status of ally-in-waiting.
Electoral coalitions are assuming greater importance in electoral success, and coalitions with minor parties may make the difference between victory and defeat in a crowded field two years from now.
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