Politics: Movements towards the 2024 presidential elections

MEXICO - Report 20 Nov 2023 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

It is now clear which presidential candidates will be on the ballot next year. While it has long been known that Xóchitl Gálvez will head up the ticket of the PAN, PRI and PRD alliance Broad Front for Mexico (FAM) and Claudia Sheinbaum that of Morena and its minor party allies, last week the Citizens’ Movement (MC) party nominated Nuevo León Governor Samuel García.

Polls currently show Sheinbaum in the lead, with support ranging anywhere from 50-65%, followed by Gálvez at 28-34%, and García a distant third, in the mid-single digits. But with more than six months to go before Election Day, there is plenty of time for those numbers to shift dramatically, as they have in every presidential contest so far this century. Much may depend on how well each camp manages the process of choosing its down-ballot nominees and accommodates its losing pre-candidates in order to keep them from bolting in search of the nomination of a rival party. Morena has been largely successful in that regard over the course of choosing its presidential and gubernatorial candidates despite politically undercutting Sheinbaum's candidate proposals, but all parties are yet to pick the vast majority of their 2024 nominees.

One wild card is the role to be played by the MC. Many suspect the party of favoring Morena by focusing all of its efforts on trying to displace the FAM parties as the second strongest political force in the country.

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