Political reset after liberal victories in the primaries
Yesterday's primary elections were once more a clear example of how difficult it is nowadays for political polls to anticipate electoral decisions. Most polls placed the Libertarian presidential candidate, Javier Milei, in a range between 20% to 15%, with only a few extremes close to the 25% and 12% levels. But the 30% he finally achieved (with 97.4% of the vote counted) was not expected at all. He alone surpassed not only the aggregated votes of “Union por la Patria” (UP) of 27.3%, but also those of the “Juntos por el Cambio” (JxC), totalling 28.3%.
Considering Milei's political and economic boldness, this electoral outcome reflects a much broader-than-expected electoral base seeking deep change after at least 12 years of economic stagnation and (most of the time since 2002) governments that have been conducting strong state intervention in economic affairs.
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