Political reshuffle knocks at the door

UKRAINE - In Brief 28 Feb 2017 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

---

Over the recent weeks we observe intensified activity of political players. Many rumors are circulating. We do not have rigid facts about what is going on but from pieces of information we’ve compiled our version of events. So, trade blockade of eastern Donbas effectively destroyed fragile balance of interests at the parliament. Since there was no functional coalition, majority at the parliament was financed at the expense of cash flow from coal trading. As soon as trade blockade started President Poroshenko faced serious risks of political crisis since he did not have enough “glue” to keep MPs engaged. As a consequence, new intensive coalition negotiations started. There are rumors about Oleg Lyashko (leader of Radical Party) potentially becoming Head of Verkhovna Rada in exchange for his support. Talks about potential replacement of the Head of the Central bank Valeria Honateva also look to be a part of coalition negotiations. The situation is aggravated by nervousness of Russia-backed separatists. Yesterday media reported that separatists’ leaders threaten to nationalize plants of Rinat Akhmetov on occupied territories if trade blocked continues. Volunteers perceived the message as an evidence of trade blockade effectiveness. Apparently, volunteering squads do not plan to give up after such statements. Against this backdrop there started circulating rumors about potential offensive of Ukrainian forces in Donbas. None can articulate how serious these plans might be. But signals about possible military operation are quite strong. What should we expect in light of such trends? Trade blockade is unlikely to be removed by force (neither army, nor police is ready for that...