Political Weakness and Economic Mismanagement

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 10 Jul 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
Executive Summary The perspectives for the Brazilian economy have taken a turn for the worse. The most optimistic projections for 2013 are for GDP growth below 2.5% (though still above 2%); inflation near (or slightly above) 6%; and the SELIC rate at 9.5% or 10%. The picture is further worsened by the wave of street protests and the possible reactions by the government, raising risk aversion and negatively affecting investments. The change in the international scenario is another element. The trend for the exchange rate to weaken will raise inflation, which will be aggravated by the increas...

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