Politics: A Tale of Four State Elections (III)

MEXICO - Report 12 Nov 2015 by Guillermo Valdes and Esteban Manteca

With this issue we conclude our initial analysis of the states that will hold gubernatorial elections in 2016. This week we offer a preview of four states that have had at least two experiences with alternation in power: Chihuahua, Aguascalientes, Tlaxcala and Zacatecas. Following seven decades in which the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) had maintained a monopoly on these governors’ mansions, opposition parties have been in power for at least one term (Chihuahua) and in the remaining three two terms. The PRI eventually recovered every one, three in just the past election (2010).

Aguascalientes is shaping up to be a tight contest six years after the PAN was routed, following 12 years of almost total control over the state. Since then the opposition has been gaining ground, and a weak PRD ally could make the difference or an independent might also emerge here, where a strong middle class is very much politically engaged. In Chihuahua corruption scandals and a rise in major crime rates could hurt the PRI and lead its PRD allies in the state to join forces with a resurgent PAN.

The situation is more muddled in Tlaxcala, where the PRD went from being the governing party in 1998 to a minor party existence by 2010, with the PAN filling the void with a term of its own before losing to the PRI in a very close race six years ago. This year the PRI has no clear choice of a popular candidate and a PAN-PRD alliance could pose a strong challenge, although such a linkup might also provide a major opening for the upstart Morena party to attract PRD voters disinclined to support an alliance with a party on the right.

Morena could also be a wildcard in Zacatecas, where a PRD-PAN alliance is also possible, and the PRI is looking potentially vulnerable not only because of the quality of the opposition candidates that are expected but also because of other key issues, such as the extent to which public security has deteriorated in the state.

Now read on...

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