Politics: Insecurity, Debt, Graft and Elections

MEXICO - Report 24 May 2016 by Guillermo Valdes and Esteban Manteca

With two weeks left before the June 5 elections, campaigning has intensified and turned increasingly negative. Questions of economic growth, corruption, and security have consolidated as the top issues in the minds of potential voters and central themes of the campaigns. And security indicators have worsened as the frequency and rate of murders rebounded in the past six months near to the highs of mid 2013.
Among the states where elections will be held the first Sunday of June, some of the contests have grown increasingly competitive, many others point toward a consolidation of the incumbent party’s hold on office, and in a few others the opposition appears to be considerably extending an early lead. It should come as no surprise that the states where the incumbent party appears to be coasting to victory are those where trends in security conditions are best, and those where the incumbents are facing a tough challenge are where such conditions are deteriorating.
Although there may not be any direct causality between the increase in violence and the narrowing of electoral preferences, the rising number of killings may be a useful political weapon in the hands of opposition candidates. Aguascalientes, Tlaxcala, Tamaulipas, and to a lesser extent, Zacatecas all fall into this category.
Tamaulipas and Veracruz are the two states holding elections next month that have been reporting both crime rates above the national average and a continuing worsening of such indicators. And in both states the PRI is facing strong challenges to its more than 80 years in office. A significant rise in the number of murders committed over the past 18 months and a high level of kidnapping are among the crime indicators affecting the contest in Veracruz, a concern compounded by revelations that Governor Javier Duarte, who has long been accused of corruption, used 70% of funds earmarked for security in 2015 for other purposes. But his main challenger has also run into damning revelations of seemingly inexplicable personal wealth in a turn of events that may yet allow the PRI to hold onto this key Gulf-coast state.

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