Politics: New Viceroys Key to 2018 Campaign
The importance of the gubernatorial elections to take place this June, a full two years before the next presidential contest, resides in the enormous power state governors have acquired over the past 15 years, and the considerable prerogatives they derive from the political, territorial and budgetary control they exert over their respective states. When the PRI lost the presidency for the first time in 2000, the 70-year-old arrangement under which the president had exerted absolute control over state administrations collapsed, and state governors rushed to fill the power vacuum, assuming enormous political independence and power. The amount of funds the federal administrations earmarked for the states between 2000 and 2015 soared in real terms by almost 90%, with no new oversight or safeguards on how such funds were to be spent so that they might be managed in a responsible and transparent manner. This new arrangement helps explain the incessant corruption scandals in almost all the states, as well as the mushrooming of the debt the states have taken on. It is no accident that political analysts frequently refer to the country’s governors as “viceroys” or feudal lords, and to Mexican federalism as a new feudalism.
For this reason, it is critical to the outcome of the 2018 presidential elections which parties retain or win control over these 12 estates, especially the three most populous among them, which jointly account for 15% of the national voter rolls: Veracruz 6.7%, Puebla 5% and Oaxaca 3.2%. The current administrations in Oaxaca and Puebla were elected as candidates of PAN-PRD coalitions; Governor Gabino Cué in Oaxaca is a member of the PRD and Puebla Governor Rafael Moreno Valle belongs to the PAN. Veracruz is one of those states that have known nothing but PRI administrations and, along with the State of Mexico, remains one the governing party’s strongest electoral bastions. But complications in those alliances and popular discontent with incumbents – perhaps none as unpopular as the PRI administration in Veracruz – cloud the outlook for this year’s races. The PRI is the hands-down favorite to win at least seven of the nine remaining gubernatorial races this year.
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