Poll results: Reelection is highly unpopular but Medina remains popular

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 17 May 2019 by Pavel Isa

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At the beginning of May, the results of the first two well-known political surveys were published: Mark Penn and Gallup-Hoy. The most outstanding are the following: 1) An amendment of the Constitution to allow President Medina to run for a third term is rejected by a solid majority (60% -70%). 2) Despite this, President Medina's approval rate is high (50% -60%). It is noticeably lower than in 2016 (80% +), but since 2018 it has remained stable 3) There is an important lack of definition in electoral preferences. Nearly 60% say they do not sympathize with any political party, a very high figure by the country's standards, and between 10% and 20% do not show preference for any of the presidential candidates, and 20% do not dare to predict who will be the next President. 4) The PLD is the party with the highest percentage of electoral preference and would win the elections if they were today. However, in no case it seems that he would win them in the first round. 5) If the PLD candidate were Danilo Medina, he would win the elections by a comfortable margin against Luis Abinader of the PRM. If the PLD candidate were Leonel Fernández, he would win, but the competition would be closer. If the PLD nominee is someone different from Leonel Fernández and Danilo Medina, Luis Abinader of the PRM, would be the winner. In any case, there will be a run-off. It is still early, and the electoral landscape continues to be uncertain, mainly due to the lack of definition in the PLD. June is the month in which that party will be forced to decide.