Politics: Post-election scenarios—the governability challenges
With the presidential, Chamber of Deputies, and Senate elections a week away, attention is already being focused on possible post-June 2 scenarios. With innumerable undefined factors at play, a post-election conflict is almost inevitable. If the race is close, whoever loses would likely challenge the results, first legally before the Electoral Tribunal, and depending on its rulings, possibly take their demands into the streets. In any such scenario, the legitimacy of the incoming president will be at stake.
However, no matter who wins, governability challenges can be expected to emerge. If Claudia Sheinbaum is victorious at the polls, the question of continuing with or substantially modifying AMLO’s policies will be posed. These include environmental issues such as the future of fossil fuels, PEMEX, and the role of the military. Much depends on the post-election role of AMLO, whether he retires from politics as he has publicly pledged to do or if he continues to be an active player in national politics albeit behind the scenes, as well as the weight and positions of the different contending forces in the Morena camp.
If Xochitl Galvez wins, which is unlikely according to current opinion polls, major challenges on the level of governability will surely arise. These concern the makeup of the presidential cabinet and specific policies, since she is not a member of any of the parties comprising her coalition and therefore not beholden to them. How Galvez will perform in office, how she intends to handle the distribution of ministerial posts, and how she will relate to the parties that would be part of her government coalition is up in the air.
In any case, it is a fact that the country will face major challenges in terms of public finances, strategic policies, and relations with the United States, especially in the event of a Trump victory in November.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report