​Post-vacation agenda:Pastor Brunson is joined by Idlib Crisis

TURKEY - In Brief 27 Aug 2018 by Atilla Yesilada

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It was anything but a tranquil Eid al-Fitr in Ankara. Despite public denials, backdoor negotiations to end the stalemateabout Pastor Brunson and other American detainees in Turkey moved ahead without a break-through. Theseefforts were joined by shuttle diplomacy between Ankara and Moscow, as Assad’s forces pushed towards the opposition-held Syrian Province of Idlib, which is a Turkey-protected “de-escalation zone”. Father Brunson:Ankara still seeks alternatives to America According to WSJ, Ankara demands cancellation of potential fines against Halkbank in return for releasing Andrew Brunson, while the White House sticks to its position of“no bargaining before prisoners are dispatched home”. While negotiations in the midst of grandstanding are a positive development, I see no quick resolution to the conflict.Additional American sanctions remain a serious threat to Turkish economy, but AKPis still in the process of trying “the alternatives” to its alliance with US to consider surrender. Trump’s legal-ethical troubles and Democrats’ lead in mid-term election polls, suggest to me that he, too, is unlikely to step back. Going back to Ankara’s plan B, Dr Ucer already discussed the economic and macro-prudential measures adopted before Eid, which have stemmed the run on TL, granting AKP more time andinstilling it with a false sense of confidence thatit can weather this conflict with minimal pain. The government hopes that funding will arrive from China,EU scared of contagion will provide political insurance and perhaps even financial aid,The newly-declared strategic partnership with Russia will cow US into a compromise, as well as to deliver economic benefits, It can lead the ...