Politics: Potential democratic institutional demise

MEXICO - Report 23 Dec 2019 by Guillermo Valdes, Alejandro Hope Pinsón and Francisco González

The latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey coincides with all the other polling data published in the past month on the seemingly contradictory phenomenon of President López Obrador's continuing to enjoy strong yet somewhat weaker approval numbers at the same time as the government he presides over gets increasingly negative marks on how it is making good on its promises. One possible explanation is the apparent disconnect between an AMLO-anchored sense of hope that things can yet change for the better, and disappointment with the lack of progress to date in key policy areas, including the longstanding public security crisis, and suspicions of enduring government corruption.

At the same time as roughly half of the public continues to deposit its trust and sense of optimism in the López Obrador figure, many are expressing a renewed pessimism regarding the ability of existing democratic systems to address their demands and grievances. We are witnessing a similar resurgence of skepticism in relation to the role played by political parties in general, with the proportion of respondents who say such organizations do very little or those who decline to express any opinion soaring to a new high of 60%.

Opposition parties have not only failed to cash in on such stirrings of public disappointment, but they have also seen their polling numbers plummet further into negative territory (-30% for the PAN and -56% for the PRI), leaving no obvious channels or paths through which people might effectively vent their ire at the ballot box, much less bring about change. And that is especially troubling at a time when other Latin American countries such as Chile, Colombia, Ecuador have been rocked by powerful outbreaks of social unrest in response to diverse causes, but with the same common denominator of frustration over democratic systems' failing to deliver.

Although trust in AMLO remains an important social stability factor, there are signs that this escape valve or retaining wall is starting to crack as confidence in democracy and political parties is being eroded anew. And with the opposition failing to stir interest, there has been a surge of voters who indicate either no preference for any party or an inclination to simply sit out the 2021 midterm elections.

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