Power supply dangerously close to critical condition

COLOMBIA - In Brief 18 Apr 2024 by Andrés Escobar Arango

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The Electricity and Gas Regulatory Commission (CREG) issues on a regular basis a reference daily path for the National Interconnected System reservoirs’ aggregate level. This path is considered to be the minimum required to guarantee that power supply meets demand; should the aggregate level fall below this threshold, the system enters a shortage risk condition, triggering an emergency protocol that contemplates a series of measures to save water for power generation. Thermal power plants have to generate at full capacity; nothing can go wrong with them, or with the hydro power plants that still have enough water to generate. Using data as of yesterday, the National Interconnected System reservoirs’ aggregate level stood at 28.75%, only 1.11 pp shy of the 27.64% critical level, as the following Figure illustrates. Source: XM, EConcept If rains don’t visit Colombia in the next few days, that gap will evaporate and extraordinary measures will have to be taken. Which ones? It remains to be seen. Will they be enough to avoid programmed power cuts? Nobody knows for sure. If imposed, how long will these power cuts last? This is a tricky one. Is CREG ready for what lies ahead? Cross your fingers. We should not lose sight of the fact that many CREG members are acting ones (not properly appointed as independent experts) and don’t have experience handling situations like these, which is not encouraging. We are walking on a tight rope.  A little over 20 years ago, daily programmed power cuts were imposed between March 1992 and February 1993. The economy suffered tremendously. A separate problem we are facing has to do with dwindling levels in the reservoirs that supply Bogotá wit...