Politics: Presidencialismo à la AMLO
It may be too soon to fully grasp the dimensions of how profoundly the sweeping electoral victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his coalition will transform the political life of Mexico, but we can be sure it will bring major changes in the way power is wielded and the manner in which the party system and relations between the Mexican state and society as a whole function.
Armed with a mandate no president has enjoyed since the days of single-party rule, a majority in both chambers of Congress, and facing an opposition that at least for the moment appears in disarray, AMLO’s election signals a return to the presidencialismo form of power that for many decades characterized the Mexican political system. But unlike in the almost seven decades in which the PRI exercised absolute power, the virtual president-elect faces significant counterweights on numerous levels that his predecessors of the 20th century never had to deal with. In the institutional sphere, there is an autonomous judiciary, as well as an independent central bank and numerous regulatory bodies. He will also have to face a more powerful business class, which in conjunction with transnational firms and institutional investors, can generate significant pressure, alongside a news media no longer tethered to the presidency, and a broad array of influential NGOs.
Admittedly López Obrador and his team have been busy offering reassurances to those alarmed by the election outcome and have been notably restrained in some of their proposals and actions. However, it is hard to feel sanguine about others that suggest AMLO will work to concentrate greater and greater powers, for example, the idea of replacing the state representatives of cabinet ministries with a single federal government representative in each state who can be expected to wield considerable power over local elected officials, or the decision to disband the presidential guard and replace it with an as yet ill-defined civilian agency. And it is by no means a good sign that AMLO insists he will personally draft the slate of candidates from which the Senate must choose the next attorney general.
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