President Boluarte in trouble; government upbeat on the economy; BCRP’s first cut now expected in August
In this report, we discuss the unfortunate comments made by President Dina Boluarte, in response to the recent international human rights reports, and the risk of her being forced to resign. Then we discuss the Q1 2023 real GDP report released on May 15th, and our forecast for economic performance in 2023. Finally, we explain our decision to push back from June to August our predicted date for the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú’s first rate cut.
Accusations of human rights violations during the protests that started on December 7th, when former president Pedro Castillo attempted to instigate a coup and was subsequently imprisoned, have dogged Boluarte in the first part of the year. The two most respected global human rights organizations, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (ICHR), an independent and autonomous organ of the Organization of American States (OAS), and Human Rights Watch (HRW), an independent nonprofit non-governmental organization (NGO) whose stated purpose is to defend vulnerable populations across the world, have both recently issued reports on Peru. As expected, both were critical of the way in which Boluarte’s government handled the protests, arguing that the Peruvian authorities violated the human rights of some of its citizens.
Both reports are relevant, but the ICHR’s may be more significant, since Peru is a member of the OAS, and a signatory of the American Convention on Human Rights. Peru is also a member of American Court of Human Rights, the so-called Pact of San Jose, Costa Rica, an organ responsible for “the fulfillment of the commitments made by States Parties of the Convention.”
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