President Medina stirs the hornet's net on re-election

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 21 Aug 2014 by Pavel Isa

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In answering questions from the media, President Danilo Medina stirred the hornet’s nest. Instead of closing the debate with a clear “no” to the possibility of amending the Constitution to allow him to run again, Medina said that he’ll provide an answer “when the time comes”. This answer contrasts with previous statements in which he stated that there was no possibility for him to run again due to the Constitutional prohibition. In our view, by changing discourse, Medina is aiming at two things. First, he’s countering former President Fernández actions, whose cronies are energetically promoting him as PLD presidential candidate for 2016 elections. The pre-campaign is quickly attracting the attention of the public, taking it away from the government and President Medina. Followers of Fernández are promoting him using the motto “winds are blowing” and “feel the winds”. Medina’s answer should be interpreted as a “counterwind”. Second, Medina s trying to avoid the prolonged "lame duck" period, which in the DR could be as long as one and a half year. As long as the possibility to become candidate is alive, his Presidency is politically alive. Elections are set for the end of May 2016. Nonetheless, Medina knows that any direct move that he makes aimed at amending the Constitution in order to run again, will have a significant cost and his popularity will suffer, as he’d be perceived as been no different from other politician. So far, he has been able to build an image of a different politician and a different President, close to people. We think that for Medina the long run and his political future are more important than the short run. From another perspective, if he does n...