President Zuma’s Cabinet Reshuffle: Calm before the Storm

SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 03 Feb 2017 by Iraj Abedian

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South Africa is abuzz with speculation about President Zuma’s pending Cabinet reshuffle. In fact since August 2016, and in the wake of the local government elections, expectations of cabinet reshuffle have been building up. In part because a couple of ministerial positions have been vacant following the deployment of the cabinet members to the mayoral positions since August 3rd. Ordinarily, then, the President should have filled them soon after the 3rd of August. Yet, President Zuma has restrained himself, unconcerned by the statutory requirements, rather playing a fairly enigmatic political game. Of course, far from the mundane institutional requirements for filling vacant posts in the Cabinet, the real controversy about the Cabinet reshuffle revolves around two substantial and politically consequential objectives. One concerns the predominantly medium term issue of succession planning within the ANC, and the other of an immediate nature relating to the control of the National Treasury which requires the removal of Zuma’s arch-rival; – Pravin Gordhan- as the Minister of Finance. These two issues have direct and strategic value for the President himself, his legacy, and his life beyond 2009 when his term as the president comes to an end. It appears that the President has since August been working hard on his options and strategies as regards these two issues. March 2017 might be the time to strike! Let’s go through the argument step by step: Cabinet reshuffle and succession planning 2017 is ANC’s year of all-important succession planning. By December 2017, the party is bound to elect its next pack of leaders and, most critically, its presidential nominee, assuming that...