President Zuma Survives the Secret Ballot

SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 08 Aug 2017 by Iraj Abedian
As I predicted in my yesterday' note, President Zuma survived today's motion of no confidence, held via secret ballots. This outcome,however, is significant in many respects. Firstly, 30 of the ANC MPs sided with the opposition to remove Zuma. This meant the motion received a total of 177 votes. And, 198 MPs of the ANC remained loyal to Zuma. This is a major change in a fractured ANC. Clearly, going forward, Zuma cannot rely on its own party's full support. It is now in the open. Secondly, on the face of it, Zuma is now stronger within the Parliament given that he can brag about winning 8 out of 8 motions of no confidence against him, with and without secret ballots. However, this is the first time since 1994 that an ANC president has faced opposition within his own party in the Parliament. Within the ANC, he is now weaker and his camp is tarnished for having brought the ANC and the country into such flagrant disrepute. Thirdly, this is now the start of the real change that has to take place within the ANC as part of the process building up towards the December 2017 Elective Congress. To this end, today's results provide support for Ramaphosa's camp. With millions of people across the country expressing anger and disappointment at the ANC, the party now has to rescue itself if it wants to have a fighting chance in the 2019 national elections. To this end, Zuma and Zuma-linked groupings within the ANC have been weakened by today's open split within the ANC MPs. This now provides Ramaphosa with a tail wind that he badly needs to launch its branch level campaign. Finally, from SA's national interest perspective, it is much more orderly if the ANC finds a way out for Zuma,...

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