President Zuma Vs Minister Gordhan: The Mexican Standoff is about to End!

SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 28 Mar 2017 by Iraj Abedian
Over the past 24 hours, President Zuma has signalled his strongest message yet that he is ready to introduce his long -awaited cabinet reshuffle. In my earlier notes I had predicted that he would do so by March 3rd, or latest March 10th! He missed those deadlines, and he now has to catch up. The fact is that every day that he delays his reshuffle, he gets politically weaker, and his degrees of freedom diminish disproportionately. He was advised as such by his trusted advisors over the past weekend on the sidelines of the ANC NEC meeting.Yesterday, unexpectedly and inexplicably, he ordered his Minister of Finance to abort his no-deal investor roadshow in London & USA, and return home in haste. The Minister is scheduled to land this morning in SA. Meanwhile, the President has been meeting with his ANC political alliance partners (SA Communist Party and COSATU), late into the night, to hammer out the shape of his new cabinet. Then he will have to negotiate with his ANC structures over the next day or so. Indications are that the President's new cabinet will be unveiled on Friday March 31st, 2017. It is highly likely that the reshuffle will be deep and wide, affecting up to nine ministers, and even the deputy president. What is not clear is what response will arise from the top structures of the ANC. Both the ANC's TOP 6 as well as its National Working Committee (and its National Executive Committee) are all split into various factions. This lack of cohesion creates all kinds of uncertainties. Alliances shift momentarily and outcomes become unpredictable. Most importantly, it makes the prospects of orderly and rational decision making nearly impossible. So, any outcome is ...

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