Politics: PRI Doubles Down on Old Strategy

MEXICO - Report 21 Aug 2017 by Guillermo Valdes and Esteban Manteca

Heading into the PRI’s national assembly observers were especially anxious to see whether the party might resist any bending of rules to pave the way for an historically unpopular president to hand pick his choice of successor, or decide to offer something of substance in its vision for Mexico in response to the public’s clamor for the establishment of an authentic rule of law as well as credible steps to deal with corruption and impunity. But while some warned that simply lining up in defense of the current administration could prove disastrous at the ballot box, the PRI decided to do just that.

Its decision to place its future in President Enrique Peña Nieto’s hands can best understood through the lens of the strategy it used in the State of Mexico and Coahuila last June and on which it intends to double down in the coming year. That approach to winning an election with less than a third of the vote includes relentlessly deploying its entire political and governing apparatus with all the funds and material resources at its command to circumvent campaign spending laws and overwhelm an opposition it will do everything possible to keep divided while consolidating the support of three minor parties in its own orbit (PVEM, Panal and PES).

A key part of the strategy is assuring that all 22% of voters who remain loyal to the party show up on Election Day. To that end the PRI’s 2018 slate must be led by a presidential nominee as yet untarnished by corruption scandals, and charismatic enough to keep PRI supporters from being lured away by the likes of Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The assembly gave Peña Nieto free rein to pick anyone he prefers, a decision that is likely to be announced late in the fourth quarter, but that process will also entail delicate consultations and negotiations with the groups in the party that align behind one of the many potential nominees who Peña Nieto ultimately fails to nominate ‒ bargaining crucial to preventing any splits or the sort of dissatisfaction that might lead part of the party to sit out the election.

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