Priorities and Uncertainties: Fiscal and Monetary Policies

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 08 Feb 2021 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Paula Magalhães

Brazil continues to be under the influence of forces acting in opposite directions – the widening and increasing pace of vaccination and a rising number of Covid cases – whose result will determine how much the economy decelerates in the first quarter of 2021. In this circumstance, a few days ago President Bolsonaro delivered to the new presidents of the Chamber of Deputies and Senate a list of 35 priorities, among them bills of law and proposed constitutional amendments (PECs) related to economic questions and customs. But having 35 “priorities” without a budget allocation approved negates any priority. In parallel, the discussion has grown about the form of the new emergency relief program. Will it be offset by cutbacks in other spending categories, maintaining the spending cap, or will there be authorization to spend more than the cap?

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