Politics: Public grows increasingly critical of policy even as approval of AMLO remains mostly intact
People have grown increasingly critical of government policy and more apprehensive regarding their economic prospects, according to our most recent quarterly survey of registered voters. Optimism sank in every category when voters were asked how they expect their family’s incomes, job status, purchasing power and access to credit will evolve over the next six months. The fact that the category that fell the most was household income, tumbling from 129 to 98 points in our index, suggests that soaring inflation is the variable fueling the increased pessimism. One third of those surveyed in late August said the economic situation in Mexico had worsened in the past 12 months, delivering another 11-point spike.
Meanwhile, disapproval of AMLO’s approach to organized crime grew eleven percentage points in three months to the highest level seen so far under the current administration. Given the degree of violence and other demonstrations of force by criminal organizations in several states in recent weeks, together with President López Obrador’s repeated refusal to modify his security strategy, it is hardly surprising that perceptions have grown more negative about the current state of affairs.
But despite such negative shifts in perceptions of security and the economy, approval of López Obrador's job in office was unchanged from June at 52%, while disapproval actually fell a point to 43%. Clearly the main sources of this continuing support are not derived from perceptions of objective accomplishments; most people expressed their disapproval of his main actions and decisions. Rather it is rooted in AMLO’s success in maintaining strong emotional bonds with the public. When asked to choose from a list of possible reasons for their support for the president, respondents tended to cite motivational ones such as seeing him as someone with good intentions or simply their faith that the country will change for the better by the time he leaves office. Only two out of ten cited the benefits relatives have derived from AMLO’s cash-transfer based social programs as the reason they approve of the job he is doing.
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