Public opinion on ‘peace deal’: territorial concessions strongly rejected

UKRAINE - In Brief 16 Dec 2025 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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We do not cover much the new wave of ‘peace deal’ efforts because Ukrainians are very skeptical of the process. Vladimir Putin’s goal is to dismantle the Ukrainian state, and his involvement in Trump’s ‘peace deal’ talks is simply aimed at delaying a new wave of sanctions, driving a wedge between the US and the EU, and hopefully destabilizing Ukraine by pressuring Ukrainians into making concessions. The strategy seems to be to avoid giving a strong “no” to Trump and keep him under the illusion that a deal is possible. The general expectation among Ukrainian opinion-makers is that Putin will ultimately reject any peace deal proposal that preserves Ukraine as an independent state, even if the front line remains frozen. The US administration, even in the most ‘pro-Russian’ version of the ‘peace deal’ under discussion, makes it clear that Ukraine should exist and thrive after the war ends. The difference is that Trump believes Russia will not attack again, while Ukrainians are firmly convinced that Russia will resume aggression once it rebuilds its military capabilities. In any case, Ukrainian and European leaders have accepted the rules of the game - keep engaging with the ‘peace deal’ process without directly saying no to Trump - as long as this music plays. Although current peace talks mostly feel like pouring from empty into void from our perspective, it is interesting to see how Ukrainians view the prospects for peace and perceive the war against Russian aggression at the end of the fourth year of fighting. Fresh polls reveal that readiness to endure the war has strengthened since summer. In March 2025, 54% of respondents said they were prepared to endure the war as l...