Pulled from the edge of the cliff
The victory on April 13, 2025 of President Daniel Noboa over Luisa Gonzalez by approximately 11 points was unexpected by everyone—including the two candidates. At least 54% of Ecuadorians understood the danger of handing the country over to organized crime. The Electoral Council has yet to officially confirm these results. After it does, Revolucion Ciudadana can submit its current claim of fraud with proof to the Electoral Court. The Court would then decide in the final instance whether to accept the claim and recount votes or to declare Noboa as the elected president.
The path for President Noboa will not be easy in these next four years. After Correa, Noboa will be the only president with more than four years in office to account for his achievements and/or his failures. The Correistas have proven to be sore losers and will not go through this period without actions that will complicate decisions in the Assembly and that could raise violence on the streets.
However, it looks as if the RC's defeat on April 13 might be followed by losses in the Assembly, as well. So far, three legislators from the Revolucion Ciudadana bloc have left the party to become independent legislators. They might look to form a bloc of at least 10, with Social Christians and some members of Pachakutik, to build negotiating power and to be able to appoint candidates for the different commissions within the Assembly.
A stagnant economy and employment are equally threatening to national security and require fast but sustainable fixes. Noboa promised one million new jobs at the beginning of his mandate in 2023. Adequate employment was 35.92% as of the end of 2023 and was 35.43% as of February this year. GDP fell 2% y/y in 2024, household consumption was down 1.3%, and gross capital formation decreased 3.8%.
This government, as well as the past two governments, have recycled money by paying the IESS, arrears and debt with more debt. Fresh money in the form of foreign and domestic investment is urgently required. Constitutional changes might be necessary to clear the path for investment in the oil, mining and electricity sectors. Noboa has spoken of those and other changes concerning the political sector, such as the elimination of the perverse Citizenship Participation Council.
The approach to those changes could fall in the territory of the Assembly, where the official side might stand a chance of getting the necessary 92 votes. Or, the changes might require a new Constituent Assembly to be called and appointed ad-hoc for this purpose—a risky and lengthy process.
The first session of the new Assembly will take place on May 14. Anabella Azin, mother of the president, will preside over it as she was the most-voted legislator. She might also be a candidate to be the new president of the Assembly. In such a case, we hope she declines the opportunity in favor of a true division of powers. As the saying goes, “Caesar’s wife must not only be honest, but must also appear so.”
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