QATAR: An upsizing in the massive LNG expansion could drive further rating upgrades

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 28 Feb 2024 by Justin Alexander

* The North Field expansion is being upsized by a quarter (16m t/yr of LNG).
* A survey of North Field’s western quadrant has boosted estimated reserves by 14%.
* The expansion could boost fiscal revenue by around 2% of GDP from 2030.
* LNG demand is forecast to grow strongly in the coming decades.
* Other major LNG exporters, including the US, Russia, and Australia, all face challenges to supply growth.
* There could be hope for yet more phases of Qatari expansion in the 2030s.
* Qatar was already forecast to achieve strong fiscal surpluses and it may now warrant credit upgrades.
* Improved financial disclosure and further reductions in contingent liabilities would support this.
* Although Qatar is in a turbulent region, it is hard to conceive of political risks that would materially undermine its LNG exports or creditworthiness.

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