QATAR: Soccer and a summit could resolve Gulf dispute within weeks

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 27 Nov 2019 by Rory Fyfe and Justin Alexander

* We are more optimistic than we have been in two years for a breakthrough in the Gulf dispute.
* Football teams from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and UAE have just arrived in Doha for the Gulf Cup.
* If their citizens also attend as fans and the tone is friendly, this will build positive momentum.
* The annual Gulf summit in Abu Dhabi in mid-December would be the obvious venue for a deal.
* However, this could still fall through due to personal animosities that could cause the dispute to drag on for years.
* We believe the Saudis are the most open to reconciliation, with the UAE most resistant.
* Reconciliation would provide modest economic benefits, for Bahrain and Dubai, as well as Qatar.
* A more unified GCC would also be positive for countries looking for support, such as Lebanon.

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