QATAR: Upgrade likely as LNG expansion moves forward and benefits from the energy transition
* Qatar should have the lowest yields and strongest ratings in the Gulf given its fiscal strength.
* Sovereign bond supplies could become constrained, although new GRE issuance is likely.
* Qatar invested in gas when it was unfashionable and reaped the rewards, but developed an independent streak that irritated its neighbors.
* Although differences persist, another blockade is unlikely because it was ineffectual.
* North Field could last for 300 years at current output levels, creating space for expansion.
* There could be up to 1m barrels of oil equivalent in reserves per national, nearly 50-times the average for the rest of the GCC.
* The two-phase North Field Expansion will boost LNG output by nearly two thirds by 2027, and even more could come after that.
* The energy transition from coal supports LNG demand growth, as gas burns with half the CO2, and Qatar is also working to reduce emissions from the production process.
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