Economics: Questions raised about the feasibility of strategic plans for the energy sector

MEXICO - Report 09 Dec 2024 by Mauricio González and Francisco González

The strategic plans presented by the Federal Government for both Pemex and CFE are insufficient to deal with the structural challenges they face. Pemex is plagued by significant accumulated losses caused by segments such as its Transformación Industrial subsidiary, for which no specific measures are being proposed to improve its profitability, nor are sources of financing for new projects indicated. For the CFE, no solutions are advanced to address its insufficient resources to finance projects or improve its operational inefficiency. The Electricity System Development Program, 2024-2038 proposes an investment of 23.4 billion dollars, which is a significant increase over previous years, but is unfeasible given the country's current fiscal situation. Overall, the strategies proposed by the new administration do not resolve the structural problems in energy supply, which represent a burden for attracting investment and for long-term economic growth.

In the week's indicators, INEGI gross fixed capital formation numbers declined an annual -2.3% in September, the first decrease since February 2021. Private consumption grew a seasonally adjusted annual 1.7% in September, which represents a slowdown with respect to the Jan-Aug 2024 average (3.9%). Both gross fixed capital formation and private consumption fell in seasonally adjusted monthly percentages during September.

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