Politics: Races tighten for several governorships in play this June, with major implications for the federal elections
Nine states, including Mexico City, will hold gubernatorial elections the same days as the presidential contest this year, and considering that the nine account for 35% of all registered voters in Mexico, what happens at the state level could have a major influence on the outcome of the presidential contest. That is especially true if the opposition coalition can tighten the races in some of the most populous states on the ballot: Puebla, Veracruz, and especially the nation’s capital, in which Morena is both the incumbent party and currently ahead in the polls.
The advantage that Morena currently enjoys in the federal contests is also reflected in the state races, with the exception of Yucatan, Guanajuato and Jalisco, all governed by opposition parties. But while Morena will be trying to add either Guanajuato or Yucatán to its column, the minimum challenge for the opposition is to retain the three states in play that it currently governs and pick up at least two more. The opposition is encouraged on several fronts where it is running against unpopular candidates, and in Mexico City, where it hopes to build on its surprising 2021 victories and more recent divisions in the incumbent camp.
This week we analyze the latest polling data for the state races and how those contests could weigh on the elections at the federal level.
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