Politics: Races tighten; although Sheinbaum remains in the lead, the scenario of a reduced margin is more likely
The presidential contest has narrowed recently due to a slight decrease in pro-Sheinbaum voting intentions while Xóchitl Gálvez has held steady, and the only candidate to pick up more support is third place challenger Máynez, although he remains just outside double-digit ranges. One online poll, however, shows the two front runners in a technical tie.
It is important to remember that polling averages have failed to accurately predict the final outcome of the last three presidential elections, and on one occasion the most accurate polls were outliers, very far removed from the average. The same happened in the mid-term elections of June 2021, when polls that predicted a closer election between Morena and the opposition coalition proved to be nearer to the final results of the vote.
Overall, surveys tend to suggest that Sheinbaum will win the election, although it is difficult to estimate by what margin. However, in light of these sources of uncertainty, it is necessary to consider alternative scenarios and their implications. The same goes for the eight gubernatorial contests and myriad other state and municipal races on the ballot June 2.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report