Rational immunization

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 14 Oct 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

Economic activity has proven stronger than anticipated in recent years, despite expectations of a slowdown in light of monetary policy supposedly operating in a restrictive stance. The repeated forecasting errors observed over the past four years also suggest a certain degree of persistence.

To investigate possible anomalies in GDP and inflation forecasts, we analyzed expectations drawn from the Focus survey, assessing the presence of bias and/or persistence in their errors.

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