Reached the summit

CHILE - Report 25 Oct 2022 by Igal Magendzo

The monthly variation of the seasonally-adjusted August IMACEC came in at 0.6%, the first positive figure in five months, and above that of the most optimistic analyst in the Bloomberg survey. But it turns out that the gains were due to a positive one-off effect in services. Various indicators, such as commerce IMACEC, retail sales, imports of consumption goods and consumer credit show that consumption is definitely pulling back. Weakness has not been limited to consumption or retail sales. Production of goods is not growing, with both manufacturing production and mining falling.

In September, the trade balance was once again unfavorable. The accumulated surplus over 12 months continued to decline, prolonging the macroeconomic imbalances that have accumulated, and the surplus reached its lowest level since July 2013. As we highlighted in our September report, the current account deficit should not be a concern, at least for the time being.

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