Ready for another five years with the Chief?

TURKEY - In Brief 28 May 2023 by Atilla Yesilada

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This is the first of several Market Briefs I shall be posting regarding Turkey’s historic election. It is brief and mostly aims at dispensing with the formality of notifying our audience about the results. There are three major uncertainties, which I need to resolve in the coming days in order to map out Turkey’s near future. Judging by social media scuttlebutt and Erdogan’s now traditional balcony speech, radical economic measures are underway briefly. The Nation Alliance met for 1.5 hours after the announcement of the unofficial results, disbanding without an announcement. As usual, there are numerous allegations of improprieties at the ballot box. I need to see whether the perception of the opposition voters will be framed by sense of fraud. The second round was not much different than the first, with Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu receiving ca. 52% and 48% of the votes cast. It is clear that the hectic reshuffling of alliances between the two rounds didn’t affect the outcome. Reports of ballot box tricks started as soon as voting opened and still trickle in. Opposition media outlets have already adopted the mantra that Erdogan won by the grace of Syrian refugees and Turks living abroad, neither of which constituency have a stake in Turkey’s future. Turkey is now a nation divided by high walls of ideology, frustration and anger. If the opposition voters come to believe that no election in Turkey from now on can be fair and fair, generating consent in any sense for his administration by Erdogan would be nearly impossible. Such societies usually regress into social unrest and disenfranchisement. Erdogan launched his balcony speech with messages of peace and reconciliation, ...