Reassessing the odds of a pre-election “currency event”

TURKEY - Report 09 Dec 2022 by Murat Ucer

Since early this year one of the very key questions we’ve been focusing on has been the likelihood of another market turmoil à la December 2021 — or another “currency event”, so to speak — before the upcoming elections. As we approach the end of 2022, we thought it would be useful to offer a retrospective and a quick recap as to where things stand, purely from an economic angle.

In summary, the odds are significantly lower now than they were, say, in early summer, but still not trivial, in our view. To be clear, even if a currency event is avoided, the sustainability of current policies is highly doubtful beyond the elections.

Now read on...

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