Politics: Recall referendum, re-election and 4T
In response to protests from opposition politicians that he is laying the groundwork to remain in office after his term expires in 2024, last Monday President López Obrador signed a commitment that he would not stand for re-election. The main issue in dispute involves a pair of proposals involving constitutional reforms, including one giving voters an opportunity to decide halfway through each president’s one-time, six-year term of office whether he or she should be recalled or allowed to serve out the final three years.
The opposition fears the referendum will allow López Obrador to get around a ban on presidents' and members of their cabinets' actively campaigning in federal elections to devastating effect in the 2021 midterms, further expanding his majority in Congress and potentially sweeping as many as 13 governorships currently held by the PRI or PAN. With his grip on power greatly consolidated, he could then call a legally binding popular referendum to allow for his re-election.
The proposals threaten many aspects of governability while paving the way for a consolidation of the president’s “fourth transformation” project.
Although the proposals breezed through the Chamber of Deputies, all opposition (PAN, PRI, PRD and MC) senators have stated categorically they will not allow the recall referendum proposal to get through, although it appears the parts dealing with popular consultations are likely to pass. Those four parties are well aware that a 2021 AMLO campaign would aggravate the profound crises in which they each find themselves, and assure they will go down to crushing defeats in that year’s congressional, state and municipal contests. If we add to that picture the prospect of possible passage of a bill that would cut public funding for political parties by 50%, the chances of survival of the opposition parties would be next to nothing.
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