Recession’s Ending Signals and Start of a Slow Recovery

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Jul 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

A large number of signs indicate that the current recession is reaching its end. The confidence indicators stopped falling at the end of last year, and since the first few months this year have been rebounding somewhat, with optimism accentuating due to the quality of the new economic team. But the improvement in the indicators remains restricted to the expectation component, in sharp contrast to the current situation component, which is still severely depressed. Our leading indicator suggests slight GDP growth in the third quarter, attesting that the economy is near the bottom of the well. Unfortunately, however, there are no indications of potential engines for vigorous recovery.

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