​Reconstructing the Davutoglu-Kilicdaroglu summit

TURKEY - In Brief 10 Aug 2015 by Atilla Yesilada

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After 8 days in the remote Aegean island of Imroz (Gokceada), which I highly recommend to those wishing to become monks or goat herders, I'm back in action and begin work by sharing with my Asian and early-bird European readers my first theories about the background of the 4.5 hour long Davutoglu-Kilicdaroglu summit that took place last night. I’ll update if new information becomes available, but my view is that the coalition dilemma may not be resolved before Friday, when both leaders re-meet, or even next week, just days before the 45 day deadline to produce a government that can muster a vote of confidence expires. For your information, based on promises made by both party spokespersons after the summit that no efforts be spared to form a coalition, I keep my estimate of the probability of early elections at only 60%. Based on repeated statements by MHP leader Bahceli, the party shall not participate in any coalition, even though I’m surprised to find many local experts who believe he is bluffing. The following is entirely constructed from accounts of the meeting that are published in the pages of the local press. Reportedly, there was no agreement on any of the “core issues” such as foreign policy, education, the role of the president, oversight of regulatory bodies, the duration of the government and many others. Yet instead of calling it quits, Davutoglu proposed a 1-2 year government that would put the topics of disagreement in the freezer to focus on areas of compromise such as “economic management”, a new constitution and Election and Political Parties Law. I don't know whether CHP’s demands of a 40% hike to the minimum wage and two bonus payments to 11 millio...