Recovering from Omicron

CHINA - Report 24 Jun 2022 by FAN Gang and Chunyang Wang

The pandemic situation in China came gradually under control in May, particularly in Shanghai. This has greatly helped economic recovery. Industrial output grew 0.7% y/y in May, up 3.6 pps from April. Manufacturing rose 0.1% y/y, up 4.7 pps from April, and has been the major force lifting aggregate industrial output growth, mainly because pandemic easing has made going back to work possible.

The PMI index in May for overall production, manufacturing and non-manufacturing was 48.4%, 49.6% and 47.8%, up 5.7, 2.2, and 5.9 pps from April, showing that the economy is generally improving, although still in the contraction zone.

In January-May, investment rose 6.2% y/y, down 0.6 pps from January-April. Infrastructure investment is the main force driving total investment. Retail sales of social consumption goods fell -6.7% y/y, up 4.4 pps from April, mostly contributed by automobile sales, up 15.6 pps in particular. Pandemic easing has also allowed consumers to go out.

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