Recovery of Activity a Step at a Time

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 21 Nov 2017 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

It has long been known that economic cycles are not like cycles in physic. No two economic cycles are alike, much less are the trajectories deterministic. Instead, the forces that determine the dynamics of a given episode can be less important in another, in which new forces also emerge. There are no longer any doubts that the recovery of economic activity is consolidating, but its pace will be slow. All indications are that GDP has now grown for three consecutive quarters, and expansion of household consumption will continue making the biggest contribution. The highlight of GDP in the third quarter was probably gross fixed capital formation, finally showing some growth after a long period of contraction. This is an important trend reversal, reaffirming that the economy is rebounding, but it is not sufficiently strong to guarantee substantially better growth in 2018.

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