Recovery of Retail Sales: Will it Prove Sustainable?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 15 Dec 2014 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

The good news is that real retail sales expanded substantially in October, both in the restricted sense (+1%) and augmented sense (+1.7%), which includes cars and construction materials. October was the third straight month of elevation. With this, it is likely that the third quarter this year will show some growth, reversing the behavior of the previous quarter. Compared with the sales figures in the same period last year, however, the picture is less upbeat: despite the recovery, the 12-month rate of augmented sales is still in negative territory, and near zero in the restricted sense (Graph 1).

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