Referendum and early elections scenarios—once again

TURKEY - In Brief 02 Mar 2016 by Atilla Yesilada
Once again, I’m taking the opportunity to use questions posed by a reader to address issues which might interest my entire audience. These are the questions: “what is the earliest a referendum could take place? how would this unveil? what are the legalistic implications of a referendum and over what timeframe? of course i am referring to referendum on constitutional changes and executive presidency” For a referendum on a new constitution, or one article of it referring to executive presidency to take place, the amendment(s) must be voted on the ground floor and receive at least 330 votes, in which case they go the president Erdogan, who presents them to a national referendum. Currently AKP has only 316 seats, hence can’t force a referendum. Technically speaking, since the ballot is secret, it can “recruit” (bribe) 14 deputies from opposition parties to back such an amendment, but I believe there are dozens in the party who oppose an executive presidency. Hence this venue to a referendum is fraught with risk. The second venue is to call early elections and campaign on the promise to introduce executive presidency as part of a broader constitutional change if the electorate grants AKP 330 seats, or preferably 366, in which case the amendments can be ratified on the floor without a referendum. I speculate AKP will first try to persuade the opposition to take a vote on its version of the constitution within the next three months, and that failing resort to early elections sometimes in early autumn. If it wins, it will quickly pass a new constitution with an executive presidency and than a call a referendum, because Erdogan wants a mandate from the public, rather than the G...

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