Referendum on migration policy unlikely to be a market mover

HUNGARY - In Brief 29 Sep 2016 by Istvan Racz

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Whatever importance the nationwide referendum on migration policy, due on Sunday, October 2, has for the long term, it is unlikely to be an immediate market mover. The vote, in which Hungarians may decide if they agree with the government in harshly opposing any compulsory refugee quota potentially introduced by the EU, cannot have direct consequences on the basic political setup in Hungary. Moreover, it is highly unlikely to change the domestic political situation in any substantial way.According to the latest two opinion polls, by Medián and Publicus, the 'NO'-s, i.e. the votes in favor of the government's view that asylum policy should be kept in national hands, are likely to reach a sweeping 83-92% of the actual vote. But as most center-left opposition parties encourage people to stay away or to cast invalid votes, the real question is about the validity threshold, which requires all valid votes to exceed half of the total number of registered voters. Polls suggest that those decided to participate reach 42-54% of the whole electorate, and a further 19-31% said they were (more) likely (than not) to participate. In addition, about 1-2% of all voters intend to cast an invalid vote. Based on past experience, pollsters' conclusion is that it is impossible to tell if the validity threshold will be reached, but it is perhaps a bit more likely that the vote will prove invalid by a narrow margin.However, the validity of the vote seems to fall short of being a decisive issue. Should the validity threshold be passed, PM Orbán would most likely 'feel compelled' (they actually said that) to initiate an amendment of the Constitution and even of the Lisbon Treaty, to take accoun...