Referendum proved invalid by a substantial margin

HUNGARY - In Brief 03 Oct 2016 by Istvan Racz

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Well, yesterday's vote almost came out as forecast by the polls. The difference from poll forecasts was that turnout ended up weaker than expected - only 40.4% of eligible voters showed up and cast a valid vote - and that of all valid votes, an unexpectedly high share - 98.3% - supported the government's initiative to keep refugee policies under national discretion, rather than in the EU's hands.The net result, of course, is that the vote proved clearly and substantially invalid, creating no legal obligation for the National Assembly to amend domestic law in conformity with the voting result. The result is clearly a disappointment for PM Orbán, who kept claiming in the past that he is forced to harshly oppose any mandatory refugee quotas set by the EU under heavy pressure from his domestic electorate. Mr. Orbán apparently attached high hopes to a valid vote, in which he could garner a sweeping victory. The actual result, namely that only 39.7% of the electorate voted for him, will weaken his positions in the EU and also domestically.Yet, this defeat will still allow Mr. Orbán to save his face, as he can claim victory, focussing on the 98% support he got in the actual vote. He already did that at a press conference last night, where he announced that he would initiate an amendment of the Constitution to take account of the voting result. (By the way, this was an unusual press conference by any standards, as journalists were not allowed to participate; they were only able to follow Mr. Orbán's speech on a projector set up in a neighboring room, unable to ask questions.)Whether or not he can get a constitutional amendment is unclear (as the radical rightist opposition Job...