​“Referendum” tells 'yes' to Russia. And now the real fight to start.

UKRAINE - In Brief 16 Mar 2014 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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No surprises, official exit-poll (only one which was allowed) reported almost unanimous (93%) support to merging with Russia. The Crimean officials report 75% participation rate while leader of Crimean Tatars, Mustafa Jamilev reports that real participation rate does not exceed 30%. Observers report that Russian citizens (Putin’s tourists) were allowed to vote at the peninsular without any restrictions and many have been seen voting several times. So happened what was expected to happen – Moscow tried to legalize occupation of peninsular. What is next? In fact, from this day real actions are expected to be unfolding. The first hot point is vital functioning of peninsular. Crimea is totally dependent of fresh water supplies, electricity supplies and food supplies from the mainland. We do not have clear vision of what might be the reaction of official Kyiv (new authorities keep generating vague messages); however, we see high risks that Russian troops will try to deploy in neighboring regions to Crimea to secure water and electricity supplies. That might be the start of large-scale actions Another point is related to Ukrainian military bases and Crimean Tatars at the peninsular. Official Kyiv rejects to withdraw from the peninsular and Crimean Tatars stated it openly that they do not recognize “referendum” and see their future within Ukraine. So far Ukrainian army and Tatars managed to abstain from opening fire but after “referendum” accomplished they might be claimed as “invaders” and “strangers” and that will be another way to a big war. Third point is related to hard efforts of Kremlin to destabilize eastern oblasts (southern oblasts have finally calmed down). Large g...