Rethinking growth in 2020

CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 24 Feb 2020 by Michael Pettis

Special points to highlight in this issue:
• COVID-19 will probably not reduce China’s GDP growth in 2020 but will instead shift growth from “high quality” to “low quality” areas as the government compensates later this year for any slowdown by increasing discretionary spending. This of course has implications for different economic sectors, some of which will do worse than expected and others better.
• This will also inevitably mean debt will grow this year even faster than expected, and debt-related concerns have already set off renewed debate among Chinese policymakers and advisors.
• Easily the main concern among Beijing’s senior policymakers appears to be halting the spread of the coronavirus and restoring the country’s growth trajectory as quickly as possible. Very few are talking about the debt, worries about which are left mainly to policy advisors.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This report is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this report or its contents.