Revenue flow remains uneven across different levels of the consolidated budget

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 19 Dec 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Ministry of Finance released 11M25 budget execution data for various levels of the consolidated budget, including extra-budgetary funds. The consolidated budget showed a surplus of KZT2.5 trillion, compared to the government’s full-year 2025 deficit target of over KZT4.8 trln. Local budgets combined posted about KZT0.5 trln in surplus, against a targeted KZT0.7 trln deficit for the year. The republican budget planned for a KZT4.1 trln deficit in 2025, with KZT3.5 trln recorded in 11M25. In November, revenue trends stayed consistent across the two main components of the Kazakh budget system, with lower-than-expected income from the energy sector (linked to oil prices and the exchange rate) offset by stronger-than-expected revenues from the rest of the economy, signaling that overall economic growth remains strong. Lack of oil-and-gas revenues stems from an unbalanced combination of the oil price and the exchange rate.The real puzzle is the officially reported surplus of the consolidated budget, which includes the republican and local budgets, the National Fund, and several other extra-budgetary funds (like social and medical insurance) after netting out mutual transfers. Its total tax and non-tax revenues hit almost KZT25.7 trln, compared to the KZT29.4 trln target for all of 2025. Social funds brought in about KZT2.6 trln in the first 11 months of 2025, already surpassing the annual target of KZT2.2 trln—a further sign the economy is doing well overall. However, spending by these social funds reached nearly KZT4.1 trln, leaving them with a rather large combined deficit.The surplus in the consolidated budget is largely due to an unusually high income from managing N...