Revising Financial Prices Outlook

PHILIPPINES - Report 11 Dec 2014 by Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang
In our most recent outlook report (“Shifting Sands,” November 14, 2014), our baseline scenario took into consideration a 50bp BSP policy rate hike in 2H15 in step with a US Fed rate hike. The sands have since shifted, and following our conversation with the BSP Governor yesterday, we are now looking at a much higher probability of monetary authorities’ holding rates steady through 2015. The main triggers for this changed outlook are the higher likelihood of monetary easing across the region and the rather steep drop in world oil prices that is leading to quicker disinflation locally.Novembe...

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